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Noah Brown

Noah Brown Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants

Noah Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+291/-508).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +327 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +291.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Noah Brown has compiled far more air yards this year (54.0 per game) than he did last year (18.0 per game).

Noah Brown's 39.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 12.4.

The New York Giants linebackers project as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cowboys are a giant 10-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to be a much smaller part of his team's passing game near the end zone this week (14.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (22.9% in games he has played).

The New York Giants pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.3%) versus wideouts this year (61.3%).

The New York Giants defense has conceded the 5th-least passing touchdowns in the league to wideouts: 0.60 per game this year.

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