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Noah Brown

Noah Brown Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Noah Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+256/-429).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +324 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +256.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 66.6 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in football.

THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (16.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (2.7% in games he has played).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Noah Brown's 12.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the worst in the NFL: 22nd percentile for WRs.

Noah Brown grades out in the 1st percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.7%) versus WRs since the start of last season (62.7%).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has yielded the 8th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.82 per game since the start of last season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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