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Noah Brown

Noah Brown Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Noah Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+256/-429).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +324 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +256.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 66.6 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in football.
  • THE BLITZ projects Noah Brown to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (16.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (2.7% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Noah Brown's 12.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the worst in the NFL: 22nd percentile for WRs.
  • Noah Brown grades out in the 1st percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.7%) versus WRs since the start of last season (62.7%).
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has yielded the 8th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.82 per game since the start of last season.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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