Nico Collins Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Touchdowns

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Nico Collins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+182/-190).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.0 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The Texans have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 59.6 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Nico Collins has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 27.3% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Favors Under

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) typically prompt lessened passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher ground volume.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
With a remarkable ratio of 0.05 TDs on the ground per game (94th percentile), Nico Collins ranks as one of the top rushing TD-scorers in the NFL among WRs and TEs since the start of last season.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (67.3% Adjusted Completion%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving touchdowns in the NFL to wideouts: 0.40 per game this year.