Nico Collins Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Touchdowns

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Nico Collins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-163).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football in the red zone (60.0% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Houston Texans.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 129.5 total plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.
The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a massive 59.8 per game on average).
Nico Collins has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 27.3% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Nico Collins has notched a massive 106.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Texans being a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to pass on 55.5% of their downs: the 10th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Titans, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.8 per game) this year.
The Texans are willing to include receivers in their running game, and Nico Collins has been given 1.4% of red zone carries since the start of last season (0th when it comes to wide receivers).
In regards to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Houston Texans grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.