Nico Collins Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Touchdowns

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 6:17 PM EST

Analysis

Nico Collins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-205).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 10th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (59.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Texans.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have 132.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

Nico Collins, who has been given 1.4% of his team's rush attempts near the end zone since the start of last season (93rd percentile), is fortunate to be in the unique position (for a wideout) of being involved in the Texans red zone running game.
With an outstanding ratio of 0.06 touchdowns on the ground per game (96th percentile), Nico Collins stands among the leading rushing touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers and tight ends since the start of last season.

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