Nico Collins Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Touchdowns

Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 17, 2026 11:13 AM EST

Analysis

Nico Collins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+138/-292).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.9% pass rate.
The projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 8th-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 28.05 seconds per play.
The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
With an elite 27.0% Red Zone Target Share (96th percentile) since the start of last season, Nico Collins ranks among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.
In regards to air yards, Nico Collins ranks in the lofty 97th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, averaging a superb 105.0 per game.

Favors Under

Nico Collins, who has earned 1.4% of his offense's rush attempts near the goal line since the start of last season (93rd percentile), finds himself in the unique position (for a wide receiver) of being involved in the Houston Texans red zone run game.
With a remarkable rate of 0.06 touchdowns on the ground per game (95th percentile), Nico Collins places as one of the top rushing TD-scorers in the NFL among wide receivers and tight ends since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the daunting Bengals defense has yielded a paltry 0.50 TDs through the air per game to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.