Nico Collins Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Touchdowns

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 7:52 PM EST

Analysis

Nico Collins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+178/-190).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans as the 7th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.1% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.3 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-most plays in football last year, averaging a massive 60.4 plays per game.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.

Favors Under

Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bills, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 28.3 per game) last year.
Nico Collins, who has been given 1.5% of his offense's rush attempts near the end zone last year (92nd percentile), is fortunate to be in the unique position (for a wideout) of being involved in the Houston Texans red zone rushing attack.
The Houston O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Nico Collins has run for 0.06 touchdowns per game on the ground last year (on average), one of the highest figures in football among WRs and TEs (95th percentile).
Last year, the daunting Buffalo Bills defense has conceded a puny 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL.