Nico Collins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +122 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.0 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The Texans have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 59.6 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast Nico Collins to garner 9.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) typically prompt lessened passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher ground volume.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

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