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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-138/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +128 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Texans as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.5% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Texans to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have called the 6th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.0 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing teams have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3.5 points.

Nico Collins's 65.3% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a substantial regression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 71.9% rate.

The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 2nd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

More Nico Collins Player Props

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