Nico Collins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
In this week's game, Nico Collins is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.9 targets.
Nico Collins slots into the 82nd percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 55.9 figure this year.

Favors Under

The Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 8th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

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