Nico Collins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Houston Texans · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Texans are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 65.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week.
The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a staggering 61.7 per game on average).
This week, Nico Collins is anticipated by the predictive model to find himself in the 80th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.4 targets.
Nico Collins places in the 79th percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with an astounding 53.3 mark this year.
Nico Collins's receiving performance has gotten better this season, compiling 4.8 adjusted catches compared to a mere 3.7 last season.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Houston Texans offensive gameplan to lean 2.1% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik now calling the plays.
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to pass on 53.0% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.

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