Nico Collins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+132/-172).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -172.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Texans this year (a whopping 62.8 per game on average).
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
Our trusted projections expect Nico Collins to total 8.3 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
Nico Collins has been in the 79th percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 52.4 figure this year.

Favors Under

The Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
At the present time, the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (57.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Texans.
The Saints pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58%) to wide receivers this year (58.0%).
The Saints linebackers project as the 5th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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