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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-102/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offense as the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.

The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The leading projections forecast Nico Collins to total 7.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Nico Collins's 58.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 85th percentile for WRs.

Nico Collins's play as a receiver has been refined this year, totaling 5.3 adjusted receptions vs just 3.7 last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.7% pass rate.

The Falcons safeties rank as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

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