Nico Collins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-156).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Nico Collins to accrue 6.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among wideouts.
Nico Collins's 55.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 82nd percentile for wideouts.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (70.1%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (70.1%).

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Nico Collins's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 57.7% to 50.4%.

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