Nico Collins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-120/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.0 plays per game.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
The projections expect Nico Collins to notch 7.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Nico Collins has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 22.5% this year, which ranks in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Nico Collins's 4.9 adjusted catches per game this year indicates a noteable boost in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 3.7 mark.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
The predictive model expects the Texans to call the 5th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

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