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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+100/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Houston Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Kyle Allen this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

The Texans are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling just 53.7 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.

The Houston Texans O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

The Houston Texans offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.

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