Nico Collins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+113/-151).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -124 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Nico Collins to earn 6.4 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 59.1 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Nico Collins has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL, completing just 54.1% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 4th percentile among wide receivers
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (61.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (61.8%).