Nico Collins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 7:18 PM EST

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 71.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Texans to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have 132.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The model projects Nico Collins to garner 9.4 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

Nico Collins's pass-catching effectiveness has worsened this year, compiling a mere 7.81 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.00 figure last year.
With a subpar 0.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (19th percentile) since the start of last season, Nico Collins rates among the top wide receivers in the NFL in the league in picking up extra yardage.

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