Nico Collins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
When talking about air yards, Nico Collins grades out in the lofty 90th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, totaling an astounding 86.0 per game.
Nico Collins's 52.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 80th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects the Texans as the 8th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.2% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense since the start of last season: 9th-fewest in the league.
The Texans offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.70 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.