Nico Collins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-101/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Nico Collins has garnered a colossal 21.7% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 76th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Nico Collins has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, completing a mere 54.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 19th percentile among wide receivers
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 137.0) to WRs since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.47 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.