Nico Collins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Nico Collins

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+294/-515).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +302 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +294.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Nico Collins has garnered a colossal 21.7% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 76th percentile among wideouts.
Nico Collins's 42.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 34.7.
The Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-worst group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Nico Collins has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, completing a mere 54.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 19th percentile among wide receivers
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up the 6th-least passing TDs in the league to wideouts: 0.80 per game since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

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