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Nick Westbrook

Nick Westbrook Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals

Nick Westbrook Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +106 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually prompt increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.

Nick Westbrook's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 57.6% to 73.0%.

The Cincinnati Bengals safeties project as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Tennessee Titans as the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect the Titans to call the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Titans have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 54.0 plays per game.

The Titans O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.

The Bengals pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (64.5%) versus WRs since the start of last season (64.5%).

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