Nick Westbrook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Nick Westbrook

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Westbrook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has been used less as a potential target this year (76.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (58.7%).
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's pass-catching effectiveness has gotten better this season, totaling 11.30 yards-per-target compared to a measly 9.73 figure last season.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's ability to pick up extra yardage has gotten a boost this year, notching 6.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 3.21 figure last year.
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.7 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.