Nick Westbrook Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Nick Westbrook

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Westbrook Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+295/-519).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +341 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +295.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to be a more integral piece of his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (14.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.2% in games he has played).
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has put up far more air yards this year (42.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have utilized play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 72.9% to 63.3%.