Nick Westbrook Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Nick Westbrook

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Westbrook Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+338/-644).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +356 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +338.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league, completing an impressive 71.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 80th percentile among WRs.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has conceded the 10th-highest Completion% in the NFL (68.9%) vs. wideouts this year (68.9%).
The Washington Commanders defense has yielded the most passing touchdowns in football to wideouts: 1.75 per game this year.
The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 4th-worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Titans to call the 6th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 50.5 plays per game.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (24.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).
The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.