Nick Chubb Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+117/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 2nd-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 49.2% red zone run rate.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.5 plays per game.
Nick Chubb has garnered 50.0% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
Nick Chubb has rushed for 1.17 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (99th percentile).

Favors Under

The Browns are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box versus opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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