Nick Chubb Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:45 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-162/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -126 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -162.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 2nd-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 49.3% red zone run rate.
Nick Chubb has garnered 45.8% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Nick Chubb has rushed for 0.71 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (97th percentile).
Opposing teams have run for the 9th-most touchdowns in the league (1.00 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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