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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 2

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets

Nick Chubb Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+100/-130).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Browns are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 48.4% red zone run rate.

Nick Chubb has garnered 57.7% of his offense's red zone carries since the start of last season, ranking in the 92nd percentile among RBs.

The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.

Nick Chubb has run for 0.53 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (92nd percentile).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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