Nick Chubb Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing TD

Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-187/+137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -179 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -187.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 9th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 45.9% red zone run rate.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.7 plays per game.
Nick Chubb has garnered 57.9% of his offense's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 126.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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