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Nick Chubb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-220).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Browns are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Browns to pass on 64.1% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency on the slate this week.The leading projections forecast this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 138.3 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.The Cleveland Browns have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 61.4 plays per game.The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may go down.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.With a paltry 0.6 adjusted catches per game (14th percentile) this year, Nick Chubb has been among the weakest pass-catching RBs in the league.With a lackluster 61.8% Adjusted Catch% (6th percentile) this year, Nick Chubb places as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to RBs.As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Denver's group of safeties has been excellent this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in the league.
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