Nick Chubb Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 23, 2022 12:05 AM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns will be starting backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
Nick Chubb has played on 53.1% of his team's snaps since the start of last season, ranking him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (77.1%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (77.1%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season with their pass rush.