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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints

Nick Chubb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-165).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.10 seconds per snap.

The Cleveland Browns O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Cleveland Browns offensive line has afforded their QB 2.54 seconds before getting pressured (8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

The New Orleans Saints defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.

The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 5th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weather report calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Nick Chubb's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 78.3% to 73.6%.

The New Orleans Saints pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (75.8%) versus RBs this year (75.8%).

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