Nick Chubb Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+116/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -154 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns will be rolling with backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Nick Chubb has been on the field for 53.1% of his offense's snaps since the start of last season, ranking him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line has given their quarterback 2.54 seconds before getting pressured (8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 4th-worst paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.42 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (76.7%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (76.7%).
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles project as the 7th-best DT corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.