Nick Chubb Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns will be forced to start backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The New York Jets defense has surrendered the 2nd-most receiving yards per game in football (50.0) to running backs since the start of last season.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 2nd-highest Completion% in the NFL (87.8%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (87.8%).

Favors Under

The Browns are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 47.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Nick Chubb has totaled a puny 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 24th percentile among RBs.

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