Nick Chubb Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Nick Chubb has been on the field for 52.4% of his team's snaps this year, putting him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Nick Chubb's skills in generating extra yardage have gotten a boost this season, compiling 10.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 6.10 rate last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
Nick Chubb's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 78.3% to 74.8%.
The Washington Commanders defense has yielded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 27.0) versus RBs this year.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (74.5%) vs. running backs this year (74.5%).

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