Nick Chubb Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+104/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to earn 16.5 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
Nick Chubb has earned 63.5% of his team's carries this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
The Cleveland Browns have gone for it on 4th down 22.2% of the time since the start of last season (9th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends project as the 10th-best group of DEs in football this year with their run defense.
The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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