Nick Chubb Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Carries

Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 6th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 62.1 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to accumulate 17.8 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Browns are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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