Nick Chubb Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Carries

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-114/-114).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to notch 14.9 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Carolina Panthers safeties project as the 29th-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Cleveland Browns have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.2% of the time since the start of last season (9th-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Cleveland Browns will be rolling with backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 4th-worst paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.42 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to be much less involved in his offense's running game this week (52.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (62.5% in games he has played).
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.