Nelson Agholor Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Nelson Agholor

NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+171/-227).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -204 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -227.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Ravens profiles as the 6th-best in football this year.
Nelson Agholor's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 60.0% to 79.4%.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 50.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Ravens.
The Seahawks cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best unit in football this year in defending receivers.

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