Nelson Agholor Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Nelson Agholor

NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +145 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens offensive approach to lean 2.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
The Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in football (42.0 per game) this year.
Nelson Agholor's 3.3 adjusted catches per game this season signifies a a noteable improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 2.1 rate.
Nelson Agholor's 81.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this year signifies a a noteworthy boost in his receiving prowess over last year's 60.0% rate.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 49.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Ravens.
The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year with their pass rush.

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