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Nelson Agholor

Nelson Agholor Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals

Nelson Agholor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+149/-204).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -204.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 7th-most in football.

The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Nelson Agholor has gone out for fewer passes this season (57.6% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (83.0%).

Nelson Agholor has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a measly 62.7% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 25th percentile among wide receivers

The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.9%) versus wideouts this year (64.9%).

The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

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