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Nelson Agholor
NFL · Player Props
Nelson Agholor
WR · New England Patriots
Receptions
New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 16, 2022 Updated Dec 24, 2022 5:46 PM UTC
NFL Props Nelson Agholor Receptions

Nelson Agholor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+149/-204).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -204.

Favors Over
  • The Patriots are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 7th-most in football.
  • The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Favors Under
  • The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • Nelson Agholor has gone out for fewer passes this season (57.6% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (83.0%).
  • Nelson Agholor has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a measly 62.7% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 25th percentile among wide receivers
  • The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.9%) versus wideouts this year (64.9%).
  • The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
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