Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Nelson Agholor

NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New England Patriots will be rolling out backup QB Brian Hoyer this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Patriots are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Nelson Agholor's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 62.6% to 78.8%.
Nelson Agholor's receiving effectiveness has gotten better this year, accumulating 12.25 yards-per-target vs a measly 8.39 mark last year.
Nelson Agholor's ability to grind out extra yardage has been refined this year, accumulating 7.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 2.92 mark last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.6 plays per game.
The Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered the 10th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 138.0) versus wide receivers since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (60.8%).

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