Nelson Agholor Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+342/-655).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -624 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -655.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Nelson Agholor to be a more important option in his team's passing game near the end zone this week (13.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.7% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Nelson Agholor's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 62.6% to 78.3%.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (71.4%) vs. wide receivers this year (71.4%).

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 29.07 seconds per play.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.