Nelson Agholor Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Nelson Agholor

NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+392/-825).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -785 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -825.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Nelson Agholor to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (16.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.1% in games he has played).
Nelson Agholor's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 62.6% to 78.8%.
The Green Bay Packers defense has conceded the 8th-most passing TDs in the NFL to WRs: 1.10 per game since the start of last season.
The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.6 plays per game.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (60.8%).
The Green Bay Packers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The New England Patriots O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

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