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Nelson Agholor

Nelson Agholor Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Nelson Agholor Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+392/-825).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -785 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -825.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects Nelson Agholor to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (16.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.1% in games he has played).
  • Nelson Agholor's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 62.6% to 78.8%.
  • The Green Bay Packers defense has conceded the 8th-most passing TDs in the NFL to WRs: 1.10 per game since the start of last season.
  • The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.6 plays per game.
  • The Green Bay Packers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (60.8%).
  • The Green Bay Packers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
  • The New England Patriots O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

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