Nelson Agholor Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+257/-424).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +258 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +257.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Nelson Agholor to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (17.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.8% in games he has played).
Nelson Agholor has earned a colossal 23.7% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 80th percentile among wide receivers.
Nelson Agholor's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 62.6% to 81.5%.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has yielded the 2nd-most passing TDs in football to wide receivers: 1.32 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 57.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.6 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.1%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (64.1%).
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.