Najee Harris Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · New York Giants

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+303/-332).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants will be rolling out backup quarterback Jameis Winston in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Our trusted projections expect the Giants to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 60.8 plays per game.
Najee Harris has put up a monstrous 1.0 air yards per game this year: 77th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound too impressive, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Najee Harris has not rushed for any touchdowns this year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Giants as the 5th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 7th-most run-focused team in the league near the goal line (46.7% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Giants.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Saints, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.8 per game) this year.
With a measly 0.0% Red Zone Target% (1st percentile) this year, Najee Harris rates among the RB receiving threats with the smallest workloads near the goal line in the league.
Najee Harris has been in just the 11th percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) with a weak 1.3 figure this year.