Najee Harris Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · New York Giants

Touchdowns

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 12:52 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+471/-525).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants will be rolling out backup quarterback Jameis Winston in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Giants, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
While Najee Harris has earned 50.0% of his offense's red zone run game usage in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller piece of New York's run game near the goal line in this contest at 34.2%.
As it relates to air yards, Najee Harris ranks in the lofty 91st percentile among running backs since the start of last season, accruing a monstrous 2.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

Favors Under

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Giants to pass on 52.9% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
At the moment, the 5th-most run-focused offense in football in the red zone (48.6% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the New York Giants.
The leading projections forecast the Giants to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased ground volume.
With a middling 0.0% Red Zone Target% (1st percentile) since the start of last season, Najee Harris stands among the pass-catching RBs with the least usage near the goal line in the NFL.