Najee Harris Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · New York Giants

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+355/-388).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants will be starting backup quarterback Jameis Winston in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Since the start of last season, the deficient Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered a colossal 0.25 TDs through the air per game to opposing RBs: the 7th-biggest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the New York Giants to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league near the end zone (48.2% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New York Giants.
At the moment, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Giants.
Najee Harris has been been lightly used his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 1st percentile among running backs.
Since the start of last season, the daunting Cardinals defense has given up a feeble 78.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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