Najee Harris Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · New York Giants

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Rams vs New York Giants · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 21, 2026 7:27 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1075/-1427).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -458 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1427.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Giants being a giant -7-point underdog in this week's game.
The New York Giants have run the 6th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a massive 59.7 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may fall-off.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.
Out of all running backs last year, Najee Harris grades out in the paltry 0th percentile for red zone rush attempts, accounting for 0.0% of the workload in his team's rushing attack near the end zone.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the New York Giants as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 57.6% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have just 125.4 plays on offense called: the lowest number on the slate this week.
Najee Harris has been been lightly used his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% last year, which ranks in the 1st percentile among running backs.
Since the start of last season, the fierce Los Angeles Rams defense has given up a puny 77.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL.