Najee Harris Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · New York Giants

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 7:22 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+441/-456).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Giants, who are -3-point underdogs.
The model projects this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 5th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the New York Giants last year (a massive 59.7 per game on average).
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually cause increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced run volume.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense last year: 9th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the New York Giants to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The model projects Najee Harris to be a much bigger part of his team's run game near the goal line in this game (19.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been last year (0.0% in games he has played).
Najee Harris has been has not been looked to very often his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% last year, which places him in the 2nd percentile when it comes to running backs.
The opposing side have rushed for the 2nd-most touchdowns in football (1.35 per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense last year.
The Dallas Cowboys safeties grade out as the 9th-best collection of safeties in the league last year in defending receivers.

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